Soothsayer Says: Predictions for the 82nd Academy Awards

Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.
Niels Bohr, Danish physicist (1885 - 1962)

Indeed, looking into the future is quite a task, a feat only luck can prove. And this year, the Oscars are no different.

The 82nd Academy Awards are this Sunday. Unlike in the past, this year's awards, at least in some categories, are (in)gloriously up in the air. It will be putting quite the hurt to lock in picks. An education, of sorts, could come up. There could be a precious blindside. I just won't be a serious man about changing my avatar.

Alright, alright--throw the rubber chicken at me, and I'll be done.

All kidding aside, going into Sunday night, several categories (notably one, in particular—read on) can have surprises and shocks… or just general wins from right-field.

I will examine the major categories, talk as much about each nominee as possible—their chances, what prevents them from the win. I may go off the rails, but that’s the fun of the awards train: buckle up…


Best Picture: This is the aforementioned possible surprise awards, the one category that still doesn’t have a clear-cut winner going into the awards ceremony. Yes, the Academy made news waves last year when they announced that the Picture nominees would expand from five to 10 (after the criminal exclusion of several critical and box office successes left out of the party last year, notably “The Dark Knight” and “Wall-E”). That aside, the two stallions still neck-in-neck on the final turn is the box office sci-fi megahit “Avatar” and the intense low-budget war drama “The Hurt Locker.” Before December, neither were considered the shoo-in; that distinction was held by “Up In the Air.” Then the naysayers of “Avatar” were put to rest (not to mention several billion dollars in James Cameron’s pocket), and several critics groups (including the Chicago Film Critics Association) remembered the June-released “Hurt Locker,” having “Up In the Air” fall by the wayside. Additionally, August’s “Inglourious Basterds” was gaining significant tractions, thanks in part to its relatively surprising box office success, a clear indication that it would gain a Picture nod. Furthermore, Disney/Pixar’s “Up” was charming audiences and critics and a Band-Aid-type nomination to make up for the wound of not nominating “Wall-E” last year was becoming more of a reality as time went on. Additionally, the potent drama of “Precious” was standard Academy member-luring fare (not to mention the Oprah and Tyler Perry factor). That left four more slot for nomination. The strong start to “A Serious Man” when first released lost its footing quickly, despite having the writing and directing by the Coen brothers. Still, a nomination is all the film will get, with chances of taking the big award very slim. Ditto goes to “District 9.” Although I was very pleasantly surprised by its nod (very deserving, the best sci-fi movie since “Minority Report,” in my opinion), “District 9” isn’t the only sci-fi film nominated this year, if you haven’t noticed; if the genre wins, it goes to the higher profile “Avatar.” Also, with box office success being factored in, “The Blind Side” picked up a nod solely on those terms. Expect anger and smashed TVs in the streets if that wins. “An Education” was another pleasant surprise, but that film’s chances of winning are also slim, with its recognition coming from its lead performance (more on that later). So the showdown comes down to the first two: “Avatar” and “The Hurt Locker.” Personally, although I wouldn’t have a problem if “Avatar” wins (it is a breathtaking piece of groundbreaking filmmaking, much like “Star Wars” was recognized for the same thing at the Oscars in 1978), I think its script and “Matrix”-meets-“Dances With Wolves” story will leave it without the top prize, despite the surprising Golden Globe win. “The Hurt Locker” has virtually dominated the awards circuit, and its intense, expert writing and directing merits will drive it to Oscar. However, if this dead heat leaves them both blue and blown up, no top award in hand, look for a “Precious” or—most likely—“Inglourious” steal.
Should Win: “The Hurt Locker”
Will Win: “The Hurt Locker”
The Dark Horse: “Inglourious Basterds”

Best Director: Also making news is this category: ex-husband vs. ex-wife, Cameron for “Avatar” and Kathryn Bigelow for “The Hurt Locker.” Cameron has been quite vocal, even before the release of “Avatar,” in his support for Bigelow and her picture, saying he helped drive her behind-the-scenes to use her superb talents to great effect. In fact, Bigelow is only the fourth woman to be nominated for Best Director. Additionally, helping her ride that is her win from the Directors Guild of America, the first female to claim the top directing prize. And yet, Cameron’s triumphant return in similar “Titanic” fashion, not to mention his involvement in nearly every technological aspect of “Avatar” (he did develop and fine-tune the new 3D motion capture camera system used in the making of the movie), and the Academy might respect that all-hands-in involvement. In fact, the other nominees don’t matter. Like I mentioned with Picture, “Up In the Air” lost its awards momentum, so Jason Reitman is not expected to take this. Neither is Lee Daniels for “Precious,” who was nominated merely to recognize the film’s powerhouse support. Even Quentin Tarantino doesn’t stand a chance, but he could squeeze in a steal (as with Best Picture) for “Basterds.” But not giving it to Bigelow would go against well-established history: only six times in the DGA Award’s history has it’s recipient not gone on to win the Directing Oscar. Also, whomever wins this award should be an indication to what film wins Best Picture, another historical distinction that links Picture and Director.
Should Win: Kathryn Bigelow for “The Hurt Locker”
Will Win: Kathryn Bigelow for “The Hurt Locker”
The Dark Horse: Quentin Tarantino for “Inglourious Basterds”

Best Actor: This is another category that “Up In the Air” lost its grip on. George Clooney was the virtual winner when the lovely film was released. Also, Jeremy Renner started to become an outside chance for his potent work in “The Hurt Locker.” Plus, Clint Eastwood’s “Invictus” hadn’t been released, so Morgan Freeman as Nelson Mandela wasn’t even thought of yet. Colin Firth had some buzz going into it with raves from critics, home and abroad, for “A Single Man.” All that came to a screeching halt with the release of “Crazy Heart” and the Oscar-snubbed Jeff Bridges. Always a well-recognized actor, Bridges began swiping awards left and right, including the Golden Globe and the Screen Actors Guild award for Best Actor. What is sad is that Michael Stuhlbarg’s subtle skills in “A Serious Man” were forced out by the Academy’s love of Freeman, who wasn’t nearly as deserving as Stuhlbarg. Renner, like the movie he’s nominated for, was remembered by many during awards season. And Firth’s performance carries a lot of weight. Clooney, already a winner for “Syriana,” will also be remembered for being in a time-appropriate film of downsizing in economic turmoil, considering that’s why they gave the uplifting “Slumdog Millionaire” the sweep wins last year. That aside, Bridges will win, but a Best Actor Oscar for him would be more apropos at next year’s Oscars: he filling John Wayne’s big shoes in the Coens’ remake of “True Grit” (out on Christmas Day) as “Rooster” Cogburn, a role that gave Wayne his only Academy Award. Still, look for the oft-nominated yet oft-overlooked Bridges to get the longest ovation of the night when he accepts his Oscar.
Should Win: Jeff Bridges for “Crazy Heart”
Will Win: Jeff Bridges for “Crazy Heart”
The Dark Horse: Jeremy Renner for “The Hurt Locker”

Best Actress: At the halfway point last year, multiple nominee Meryl Streep was a front-runner to not only be guaranteed a nomination for her impeccable performance as Julia Child in “Julie & Julia” but most assumed she was the chosen one to win. Then, “Precious” was picking up, with recognition being showered upon newcomer Gabourey Sidibe. Likewise for Carey Mulligan in “An Education.” Don’t get me started on the lack of mainstream recognition for Maya Roudolph in “Away We Go.” What stood in all their ways was Sandra Bullock. Already a star for the year with the box office success of “The Proposal,” “The Blind Side” started to give her some notoriety on awards ballots, “All About Steve” notwithstanding. The film, the typical uplifting, rags-to-riches story Academy voters love to see, is being anchored with Bullock’s Globe and SAG wins. Even previous winner Helen Mirren, for “The Last Station,” will not stop it. And with the SAG Awards holding near-matches for many years for respective recipients in the acting categories, Bullock will—unfortunately—take home the gold.
Should Win: Meryl Streep for “Julie & Julia”
Will Win: Sandra Bullock for “The Blind Side”
The Dark Horse: Carey Mulligan for “An Education”

Best Supporting Actor: What needs to be said about this category is the less that needs to be spoken: Christoph Waltz. His deviously delightful and, frankly, iconic villainous turn as the charming yet evil Nazi officer Hans Landa in Tarantino’s “Basterds” is one of the night’s few guarantees. His win for Best Actor at the Cannes Film Festival surely didn’t hurt. Waltz has picked up every Supp. Actor award, save for a few. A definitive and tremendous win for the initially unknown Waltz will cap an astounding American debut. Sadly, though, Waltz’s tremendous work overshadows other fine accomplishments for the year. Eighty-year-old Christopher Plummer earned his first Oscar nomination for “The Last Station.” Subtract Waltz, and it’d be a great year for first-time winners, with Bridges. Woody Harrelson, having a great year with the box office success of the fantastic “Zombieland,” was a smoldering powerhouse of intensity in “The Messenger.” And Stanley Tucci was cold, cool and creepy in the (to me, anyways) sorely critically-battered “The Lovely Bones.” Frankly, Matt Damon’s nod in this category for “Invictus” only shows the Academy’s love for everything Eastwood. His lead work in “The Informant!” was far superior, not to mentioned worthy of a Best Actor nomination. Frankly, the lack of nominations for Alfred Molina in “An Education,” Anthony Mackie for “The Hurt Locker” or Peter Capaldi in “In the Loop” is downright criminal. Still, Waltz, for sure.
Should Win: Christoph Waltz for “Inglourious Basterds”
Will Win: Christoph Waltz for “Inglourious Basterds”
The Dark Horse: Christopher Plummer for “The Last Station”

Best Supporting Actress: Another category that has two distinctions: 1) a guarantee win for Mo'Nique in “Precious” and 2) a history of shocking steals, despite early award wins. I know, I know—two things that clearly counteract each other. Yes, Mo'Nique has cleaned house awards-wise as the overbearing, abusive mother in “Precious.” At the same time, the Academy has gone against the grain plenty of times for this category (Remember Juliette Binoche over Lauren Bacall?). Maggie Gyllenhaal’s nomination for “Crazy Heart” was a surprise, to me. Personally, I thought she was good, not great but in a weak year, those tend to shine through. Anna Kendrick in “Up In the Air” was also a fine piece of work but not perfect. Penélope Cruz, a winner in this category last year, was the best part of “Nine”—and not for the acting. If it were me, Vera Farmiga’s work in “Up In the Air” was sweet, sexy and subtle, a moving performance that expertly complimented Clooney. Still, with the Academy loving to recognize vast 180-degree turns from comedian-to-serious-actor, Mo'Nique is the safe bet… for now.
Should Win: Vera Farmiga for “Up In the Air”
Will Win: Mo'Nique for “Precious”
The Dark Horse: Penélope Cruz for “Nine”

Best Animated Feature: “Up” clearly will win, although the strong critical response to Disney returning to traditional animation with “The Princess and the Frog” could woo older voters. “Coraline” also was delightful, especially in 3D.
Should Win: “Up”
Will Win: “Up”
The Dark Horse: “Coraline”

Best Original Screenplay: This category, along with its Adapted counterpart, has long been reserved for giving out Oscars to films that, although critically lauded, don’t stand a chance against the bigger categories. So, while “The Hurt Locker,” logically, would be the typical choice, the Academy could very well give it to “A Serious Man,” surprise us with an animated film’s script in “Up,” or the serious deep, drama of “The Messenger.” But my money is on the “Basterds” script by Tarantino.
Should Win: Mark Boal for “The Hurt Locker”
Will Win: Quentin Tarantino for “Inglourious Basterds”
The Dark Horse: Joel & Ethan Coen for “A Serious Man”

Best Adapted Screenplay: Same as before, a category for the sore losers of sorts. “Sideways” got its (sadly) lone Oscar a few years ago for this category. This year is no different. “District 9,” “An Education” and “In the Loop,” all very deserving. Even “Precious,” but this is where “Up In the Air” will gain it’s Academy recognition after the colling of its Oscar chances when awards season picked up. A shock could be fun, though, but I doubt seeing the Academy leaving “Up In the Air” empty-handed.
Should Win: Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell for “District 9”
Will Win: Jason Reitman & Sheldon Turner for “Up In the Air”
The Dark Horse: Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci and Tony Roche for “In the Loop”

Best Original Score: I wanted to touch on this category and discuss since films cores are an obsession of mine. Fine composers populate this year’s nominees. The tribal themes exuded by James Horner in “Avatar” complimented the story and visuals of the film. Marco Beltrami and Buck Sanders’ pulsing, wired work for “The Hurt Locker” also was a fit for the film. I was delighted to see Hans Zimmer nominated for “Sherlock Holmes,” a nomination I knew would be the film’s only nod. Alexandre Desplat’s “Fantastic Mr. Fox” score also suiting fit for the stop-motion animation film. Finally, the score for “Up” by Michael Giacchino, if only for the tearful flashback sequence at the start of the film, is equally deserving and delightful. Only the exclusion of Marvin Hamlisch’s spectacular score for “The Informant!” and Christopher Young’s Gypsy-inspired “Drag Me to Hell” score is sickening to me. This is a tough call, truly.
Should Win: “The Hurt Locker” by Marco Beltrami and Buck Sanders
Will Win: “Up” by Michael Giacchino
The Dark Horse: “Avatar” by James Horner

Other categories…

Best Cinematography
Should Win: “The Hurt Locker”
Will Win: “Avatar”
The Dark Horse: “The White Ribbon”

Best Film Editing
Should Win: “The Hurt Locker”
Will Win: “The Hurt Locker”
The Dark Horse: “District 9”

Best Visual Effects
Should Win: “Avatar”
Will Win: “Avatar”
The Dark Horse: “Star Trek”

Best Sound Editing
Should Win: “The Hurt Locker”
Will Win: “Avatar”
The Dark Horse: “Up”

Best Sound Mixing
Should Win: “The Hurt Locker”
Will Win: “Avatar”
The Dark Horse: “Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen”

The 82nd Academy Awards, co-hosted by Alec Baldwin and Steve Martin, will be broadcast live on Sunday, March 7 at 7 p.m. CT on ABC.